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Even with a shift south, Florence still impacts us this weekend

(WSET)

LYNCHBURG, Va. (WSET) -- The forecast of Florence continues to remain a low confidence forecast. It’s proven that it will do what it wants to do, based on the frequent and odd changes in the track.

The current thinking from ABC13 and the NHC is that the area of high pressure that we’ve been talking about since last week will be playing a major role in the track and progress of the storm.

The thinking has always been that the strong ridge over the Atlantic was going to block the system from going back out into the Atlantic (unable to make the turn) and that it was going to essentially drive the storm into the coast.

What was always/still is up for discussion was how strong the ridge will be? A stronger ridge would suppress the system south, a weaker ridge would allow it to go north.

It appears now that the ridge in the Atlantic will be even stronger than previously thought, suppressing it even farther south than initially thought.

At a point, the system will continue to be pushed south and inland from the ridge, loosing strength as it does so, before it gets absorbed by the jet stream….and heads north.

So, what does this mean for us? Let’s break it down day by day…

FRIDAY:

• We will see scattered showers, perhaps a storm. You’ll notice that the wind field with the storm is still very wide, so wind gusts are still possible in our area of 30-40mph as the storm approaches the Carolina coast.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY:

• With the new track. Our totals have gone down. Totals now over our area for THE WEEKEND will generally be under 2” – HOWEVER, as we saw JUST LAST NIGHT, with our saturated ground it DOES NOT take a lot of rain to cause problems. We will still see rain this weekend, and still see the threat for isolated flash flooding.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

• As what is left over of Florence will get absorbed by the jet stream, that will move northward into our area. We think now our heaviest rain will be next week. (Probably Tuesday and Wednesday) remember, this storm has a ton of moisture with it, even weakened it can still drop a lot of rain. Totals now look to be in the ballpark of 3-6” early next week, with higher amounts being found west of the blue ridge.

So, even though the track has changed to lessen our impacts this weekend, DO NOT LET YOUR GUARD DOWN, we will still have rain, there will still be pockets of isolated flash flooding, and we will eventually catch what’s left over of Florence early next week.

Also, we’ve said since the start… THE TRACK MEANS EVERYTHING. The slightest shift can mean the difference between a lot and a little. This is an everchanging situation.

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