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Snow likely across Virginia on Sunday

Weekend summary

LYNCHBURG, Va. (WSET) -- For weeks on our Facebook Live broadcasts, we've been telling you that the first half of March is highly favorable for a "snow event."

Looking ahead to Sunday, we are now closely tracking the potential for a winter storm in Virginia.

Here are two computer forecasting models ending at the same time on Monday morning. I'm looking at the trends, and not just the jumps you see from data to data run. Personally, I like the bottom map better.

THOUGHTS:

-If we are going to receive heavy snow, the center of the Low pressure area needs to pass eastward across the Greensboro/I-40 region.

-The heaviest snow will fall about 100 to 150 miles north of low's center.

-The heaviest snow is likely west of LYH where temperatures will be colder and elevations are higher.

-This data does NOT factor in warm ground temperatures or if sleet/ice/rain becomes a factor.

-The snow would be heavy and wet.

-However, ground temperatures are overrated during heavy, wet snow.

-Mountain snow could begin as early as Sunday morning while lower elevations get rain.

-The heaviest snow would occur Sunday evening/night-- this is due to the circulation around the low forcing colder air into Virginia.

Updates to follow.

- George

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