Update 4 p.m.:
A large storm system will arrive from the southwest late Monday night, bringing a light mix of sleet and freezing rain to the area between 2 am and 10 am Tuesday. As temperatures will drop to around 30 degrees, roads are expected to have slick spots, but not become entirely impassible. Elevated road surfaces, like bridges and overpasses will ice over most quickly. A thin coating of ice is possible, but not enough icing is expected to cause downed trees or power lines.
After daybreak Tuesday, freezing rain will gradually change over to all rain as temperatures creep into the middle to upper 30s. Most locations will be all rain by noon. Deeper valleys in Amherst, Rockbridge, and Nelson Counties will be the last locations to have the changeover.
Rain will continue Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night, with the rain heavy at times. The rainfall becomes much less steady around daybreak Wednesday, with 1-3" of rain common by that time. Small streams and creeks should be monitored for flooding after dark Tuesday evening. Temperatures Tuesday evening will hold steady, or perhaps climb a degree or two, so there is no threat of ice or snow Tuesday night.
Scattered rain showers will transition to scattered snow showers on Wednesday, but the precipitation will be lighter and much less consistent that Tuesday and Tuesday night. Temperatures will begin to fall in the afternoon from the lower 40s, back into the 30s, allowing a coating of snow on some grassy and elevated surfaces toward evening.
All areas turn clear on Wednesday night, and temperatures will drop into the lower 20s. Road surfaces that do not dry Wednesday night will likely have icy patches at daybreak. But Thanksgiving Day itself will be sunny with highs in the upper 30s.
A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for northwest sections late Monday tonight and Tuesday morning!
A large storm system moves into the region late Monday night into early Tuesday morning. Expect a brief period of snow and sleet. Accumulations up to an inch possible, especially in the mountains.
A period of freezing rain and rain is likely through late Tuesday morning. A glaze of ice should form on trees, power lines and exposed surfaces.
Icy spots could develop on some roadways, mainly on bridges and overpasses. Tuesday afternoon, all precipitation should become plain cold rain.
Anticipate rainy weather through Wednesday, the big travel day.
Right now Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday are mostly sunny and cold. This weekend stays dry and cool.