Heaviest Rain Expected Tuesday Evening
Update 4:30 p.m.:
Rain continues throughout our part of the state Tuesday night. The heaviest rain is Tuesday evening, then backs off to lighter and more showery rain toward daybreak. Ponding of water on roadways will continue overnight. Temperatures will hold steady overnight, so there is no threat of refreezing of surfaces.
While winds will be light in most locations, areas above 2000 feet will have strong winds from the south and southwest this evening and overnight. A High Winds Warning is in effect for the locations along the Blue Ridge Parkway, where gusts to 50mph are expected. This includes areas from the Peaks of Otter, Forks of Buffalo, and Wintergreen.
Numerous rain showers will change to several rounds of snow showers late tomorrow morning and through the early afternoon. Pavement will be too wet and mild for accumulation, but a coating to an inch is expected on grassy and elevated surface before dusk tomorrow. Areas along and west of the Blue Ridge will have closer to 2 inches.
Winds will also increase from the northwest for all parts of the area tomorrow. Sustained winds of 15-25mph will be common, with some gusts to 40mph, especially in areas along and west of the Blue Ridge Parkway.
The sky clears rapidly Wednesday evening and the breezes should help dry most road surfaces. However, temperatures will quickly drop through the 20s Wednesday evening, so wet, less-traveled roads will develop icy spots a few hours after sunset, and may still be slick at daybreak on Thanksgiving morning.
Thanksgiving still looks sunny, breezy, and cold, with highs stopping shy of 40.
Aside from a stray shower Sunday, the rest of the Holiday Weekend looks dry with highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s.
A Winter Weather Advisory for freezing rain continues this morning.
After a brief period of snow and sleet overnight in northwest sections, all locations have freezing rain and rain right now. Most of the ice is on elevated surfaces such as cars, trees and power lines. Caution... While many roads are just wet, there could be some icy spots, especially on bridges and overpasses.
Freezing rain will gradually change over to all rain as temperatures creep into the middle to upper 30s. Most locations will be all rain by noon. Deeper valleys in Amherst, Rockbridge, and Nelson Counties will be the last locations to have the changeover.
Rain will continue through tonight, with rain heavy at times. The rainfall becomes much less steady around daybreak Wednesday, with 1-3" of rain common by that time. Small streams and creeks should be monitored for flooding after dark this evening. Temperatures tonight will hold steady, or perhaps climb a degree or two, so there is no threat of ice or snow.
Scattered rain showers will transition to possible snow showers on Wednesday, but the precipitation will be lighter and much less consistent than Tuesday and Tuesday night. Temperatures will begin to fall in the afternoon from the lower 40s, back into the 30s, allowing a coating of snow possible on some grassy and elevated surfaces toward evening.